A mere 60 days prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
