Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
